煤(mei)(mei)电同增撬动销(xiao)(xiao)售净利(li)润(run)改(gai)善(shan)，注重储(chu)能技术技术及新砌(qi)(qi)的(de)煤(mei)(mei)业，能维系(xi)(xi)“定增”评分(fen)。单位发布了2023 工商年(nian)(nian)(nian)报及2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)个(ge)季节(jie)报，2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)单位变(bian)现(xian)(xian)每(mei)天的(de)运(yun)营效益(yi)301.2 5亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-15.3%；变(bian)现(xian)(xian)归(gui)母销(xiao)(xiao)售薪水(shui)空(kong)间润(run)22.7 5亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+18.7%。之中(zhong)2023Q4 变(bian)现(xian)(xian)每(mei)天的(de)运(yun)营效益(yi)81.4 5亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+1.8%，变(bian)现(xian)(xian)归(gui)母销(xiao)(xiao)售薪水(shui)空(kong)间润(run)6.4 5亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+5.0%。2024Q1单位变(bian)现(xian)(xian)每(mei)天的(de)运(yun)营效益(yi)73.2 5亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+3.6%，变(bian)现(xian)(xian)归(gui)母销(xiao)(xiao)售薪水(shui)空(kong)间润(run)4.7 5亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+11.4%。来综合考虑(lv)2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)当时卖场煤(mei)(mei)价(jia)下(xia)行带宽，企业下(xia)跌2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)(nian)创收预測并汇总2026 年(nian)(nian)(nian)创收预測，平均2024-2026 年(nian)(nian)(nian)变(bian)现(xian)(xian)归(gui)母销(xiao)(xiao)售薪水(shui)空(kong)间润(run)24.1/26.0/27.1 5亿(yi)(yi)（2024-2025 万(wan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)前值一般(ban)选择25.1/26.6 5亿(yi)(yi)），相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为(wei)0.11/0.12/0.12 元(yuan)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)应如(ru)今收盘价(jia)PE 为(wei)12.2/11.3/10.8 倍，单位煤(mei)(mei)电互补原理(li)开的(de)模式四轮驱动销(xiao)(xiao)售净利(li)润(run)持续增长、新砌(qi)(qi)的(de)煤(mei)(mei)业投建(jian)生(sheng)活中(zhong)，储(chu)能技术技术经济转(zhuan)型转(zhuan)型直得等待，能维系(xi)(xi)“定增”评分(fen)。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)茶(cha)(cha)叶(ye)市场(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)销售量(liang)(liang)持(chi)(chi)续减(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，煤(mei)质(zhi)茶(cha)(cha)叶(ye)市场(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)销售量(liang)(liang)分开(kai)(kai)为(wei)(wei)240/237 万(wan)桶(tong)左右(you)，同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)茶(cha)(cha)叶(ye)市场(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)销售量(liang)(liang)分开(kai)(kai)为(wei)(wei)67/62 万(wan)桶(tong)左右(you)，同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+8.6%/+7.4%。因为(wei)(wei)2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)一期(qi)(qi)度(du)茶(cha)(cha)叶(ye)市场(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)煤(mei)价(jia)下行(xing)速度(du)带宽(kuan)，2024Q1 总部(bu)(bu)(bu)山西(xi)(xi)煤(mei)炭工(gong)作营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)为(wei)(wei)12.3 亿(yi)港元(yuan)，同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-27.4%。总部(bu)(bu)(bu)所在区(qu)域西(xi)(xi)安亿(yi)华海(hai)(hai)则滩煤(mei)业的(de)(de)项(xiang)目地处西(xi)(xi)安省(sheng)榆横二矿(kuang)，煤(mei)种注意为(wei)(wei)高质(zhi)量(liang)(liang)所有用煤(mei)及牵引力煤(mei)，信息储(chu)(chu)量(liang)(liang)11.45 亿(yi)多吨(dun)，月均发冷量(liang)(liang)6500 大卡(ka)综上(shang)(shang)所述。该(gai)的(de)(de)项(xiang)目预期(qi)(qi)2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三(san)第三(san)一季度(du)遵循出煤(mei)标准，2027 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)达产。不同总部(bu)(bu)(bu)核算(suan)，按2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)茶(cha)(cha)叶(ye)市场(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)月均煤(mei)价(jia)基本核算(suan)可构建年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)营(ying)业执照个(ge)人收(shou)(shou)(shou)入约90 亿(yi)港元(yuan)、纯营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)约44 亿(yi)港元(yuan)。输(shu)配(pei)(pei)电(dian)(dian)工(gong)作：2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)输(shu)配(pei)(pei)电(dian)(dian)工(gong)作量(liang)(liang)升本减(jian)营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)偏态(tai)减(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，2024Q1 发剩(sheng)(sheng)余(yu)(yu)(yu)储(chu)(chu)充电(dian)(dian)持(chi)(chi)续高增。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)总部(bu)(bu)(bu)赢(ying)得丹阳(yang)中鑫(xin)华海(hai)(hai)掌控权，新(xin)增的(de)(de)装机系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)余(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)20 生辉万(wan)瓦，总部(bu)(bu)(bu)用用输(shu)配(pei)(pei)电(dian)(dian)股(gu)份总装机系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)余(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)实(shi)现918 生辉万(wan)瓦、持(chi)(chi)股(gu)总装机系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)统(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)余(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)实(shi)现400 生辉万(wan)瓦。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)总部(bu)(bu)(bu)发布剩(sheng)(sheng)余(yu)(yu)(yu)储(chu)(chu)充电(dian)(dian)分开(kai)(kai)为(wei)(wei)373.5/353.9 亿(yi)kW时，同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)茶(cha)(cha)叶(ye)市场(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)煤(mei)价(jia)下行(xing)速度(du)带宽(kuan)可使总部(bu)(bu)(bu)输(shu)配(pei)(pei)电(dian)(dian)料(liao)工(gong)费同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-11.2%，营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)息率增强17.6 个(ge)点至10.7%，营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)功能幅度(du)减(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)。2024Q1总部(bu)(bu)(bu)发布剩(sheng)(sheng)余(yu)(yu)(yu)储(chu)(chu)充电(dian)(dian)分开(kai)(kai)为(wei)(wei)100.0/94.7 亿(yi)kW时，同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+14.2%/14.2%，各位预期(qi)(qi)总部(bu)(bu)(bu)2024Q1 净利润同期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)减(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)注意取决于发布剩(sheng)(sheng)余(yu)(yu)(yu)储(chu)(chu)充电(dian)(dian)偏态(tai)提高。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

提速构造(zao)全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液(ye)流充电全(quan)(quan)加工(gong)(gong)业链，集(ji)团(tuan)集(ji)团(tuan)企业储(chu)(chu)热(re)(re)转(zhuan)化提速落子(zi)。（1）全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液(ye)流充电工(gong)(gong)作建(jian)(jian)成(cheng)：集(ji)团(tuan)集(ji)团(tuan)企业所属(shu)单位张(zhang)家港德泰储(chu)(chu)热(re)(re)紫装有局限集(ji)团(tuan)集(ji)团(tuan)企业1,000MW 全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液(ye)流充电储(chu)(chu)热(re)(re)紫装营造(zao)营地（几(ji)期300MW）已经和2023 年(nian)6 月(yue)底(di)开(kai)始开(kai)工(gong)(gong)建(jian)(jian)成(cheng)，开(kai)展2024 年(nian)4第一季(ji)度(du)开(kai)工(gong)(gong)，开(kai)展几(ji)期工(gong)(gong)作达月(yue)子(zi)占发达国家茶叶市场占比10%。（2）钒(fan)矿选冶的(de)生(sheng)产工(gong)(gong)艺建(jian)(jian)成(cheng)：

集(ji)团(tuan)新(xin)有(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)我(wo)司(si)单位隶属敦煌市汇宏矿山机械开(kai)拓有(you)效集(ji)团(tuan)新(xin)有(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)我(wo)司(si)6000 吨(dun)/年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)纯五被氧化反应的二钒选(xuan)冶制(zhi)造线(xian)（期(qi)3000 吨(dun)/年(nian)(nian)(nian)）于2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)6 月底施工基本(ben)建(jian)设，估计2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)一(yi)(yi)整年(nian)(nian)(nian)度动工。截止(zhi)近(jin)些年(nian)(nian)(nian)近(jin)些年(nian)(nian)(nian)，该产线(xian)是我(wo)们(men)(men)国(guo)家(jia)单条经营(ying)规模最(zui)主要、自行化程(cheng)度上(shang)上(shang)限(xian)(xian)(xian)、区(qu)域最(zui)很(hen)友(you)好的石煤提(ti)钒制(zhi)造线(xian)，达生完孩(hai)子(zi)后将(jiang)占有(you)我(wo)们(men)(men)国(guo)家(jia)石煤提(ti)钒20%以上(shang)市場比例。同(tong)一(yi)(yi)时(shi)间集(ji)团(tuan)新(xin)有(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)我(wo)司(si)在债权(quan)收购(gou)提(ti)供了广州省石台县龙岭钒矿采(cai)矿点(dian)权(quan)，增大(da)了平(ping)均水平(ping)品味0.93%、审查确定(ding)134.74万吨(dun)左右(you)左右(you)的五被氧化反应的二钒资源英(ying)文性量，近(jin)些年(nian)(nian)(nian)集(ji)团(tuan)新(xin)有(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)我(wo)司(si)五被氧化反应的二钒资源英(ying)文性量可达158.89 万吨(dun)左右(you)左右(you)。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。